Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose (R), in response to a federal court order, directed that the primary for state legislative offices be held on August 2, 2022. The Interactive and 2023 views use redistricted lines, placing incumbents where applicable . Gerald Ford's (R) first term began in August 1974 following the resignation of President Richard Nixon (R), who was first elected in 1968 and was re-elected in 1972. The closest U.S. House race in 2022 was in Colorado's 3rd Congressional District, where Lauren Boebert (R) defeated Adam Frisch (D) by a margin of 0.17%, or 546 votes out of more than 300,000 cast. Incumbents filed to run in the newly created Florida's 28th and Texas' 27th Congressional Districts. Read the Analysis >. Updated September 23, 2022 10:43 am. The final 2022 House ratings from Sabato's Crystal Ball. Arizona. Last updated: Feb. 3, 2023 11:57 a.m. PST 218 for majority 213 DEMS GOP. Box 400806Charlottesville, VA 22904, 2020 By the Rector and Visitors of the University of Virginia. Alaska. This is not surprising given the much smaller number of Senate seats contested in each election and the larger potential impact of local factors such as candidate quality and fundraising. Each square represents an instance where Democrats or Republicans get that much of the popular vote and that many seats. Arkansas. How various breakdowns in the national popular vote correspond to the most likely distributions of House seats by party, according to our forecast. GOP Rep. Don Bacons race is one to watch. The following table compared U.S. House race ratings from The Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections prior to the November 2022 elections. The congressional make up prior to the election was seven Democrats and . Nov. 6, 2022 Georgia's 2nd District Previous rating: Likely Democratic Democratic Rep. Sanford Bishop is still favored for reelection, but GOP Gov. The average MOV of in the U.S. House was 28.9 percentage points, the second smallest margin since 2012, and up slightly from 28.8 percentage points in 2020. Our 2022 election forecast is final and no longer updating. Ellis said that these districts, where the incumbent won re-election with less than 52 percent of the vote, could be "some of the most competitive early targets in the 2022 elections. CA-13, IN-01, MI-07, NV-01, OH-01, OH-09, PA-08, PA-17, RI-02, WA-08 move to Leans Republican; CT-05, IL-17, ME-02, MI-08, MN-02, NY-17, NY-19, OR-06 to Leans Democratic. Some information, including the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll and commentaries are available for free to the general public. A special election for the seat was held concurrently with the general election on November 8. Considered the weaker side, a $100 bet on the Democrats would yield a profit of $225 in the case of an upset. All rights reserved. As with the House, the margin of control in the next Senate is likely to be very narrow. But 2022 will be a steeper climb. She will be contributing periodically to the Crystal Ball, and her first piece -- on how election deniers performed in the 2022 elections -- is KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Republicans won a slim House majority at least in part by winning more victories in districts that Joe Biden carried than Democrats did in districts carried by Donald Trump. The generic congressional vote question does not mention specific candidates. Hover over or click a district to see the presidential vote counts. Five of the chamber's six non-voting members were up for election as well. In this article, I use generic ballot polls to construct a model for forecasting seat change in midterm elections. RCP Senate Map Race Changes. All 435 seats will be contested, most with redrawn boundaries. Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 House forecast. Miles Coleman, The House: GOP Hits 218 in Ratings as Battle Rages Across Big Playing Field, Recent Midterm History: More Complicated Than You Think, Following the Money: What Outside Spending Tells Us About the Race for the House, Lessons from the Past: What 1978 and 1982 Tell Us About 2022, The Seats-in-Trouble Forecasts of the 2022 Midterm Congressional Elections, Forecasting 2022 Using the Fundamentals: The Structural and Structure X Models. [53][54], The following table displays candidates who qualified as Young Guns for the 2022 election cycle. Republicans formally captured 218 House seats, a delayed yet consequential finish to the 2022 midterm elections. Six states were apportioned one U.S. House district, so no congressional redistricting was required. Upset wins are surprising but not impossible. These results indicate that one should interpret the models predictions for Senate seat swing cautiously as relatively large errors are not uncommon. [47][48], The following table displays members included in the NRCC's Patriot Program for the 2022 election cycle. November 7: FL-13 moves from Likely to Leans Republican; FL-27 Leans to Likely Republican; TX-28 Leans Democratic to Toss-up. When not including blank votes, Delgado received 54% of the vote. 49 -1. Currently, the Democrats hold just a 219-211 lead in the House . Chavez-DeRemer defeated McLeod-Skinner in the general election. We can use the results from the regression equations in Table 2 to generate conditional forecasts of seat swing in the 2022 House and Senate elections. A lead of that magnitude would predict a Republican gain of one seat in the House and a Democratic gain of two seats in the Senate giving Democrats a 221-214 seat majority in the House and a 52-48 seat majority in the Senate. 2024 House Interactive Map 2024 Pundit Forecasts 2022 House Polls 2022 House Simulation View Your 2022 District 2022 House Retirements 2022 House Election Results. Election Day arrived with 217 seats in the Solid, Likely or Lean Republican category putting Republicans only two seats away from the majority, according to the forecast. The Current House view on the map shows incumbent members in their current districts. When not including blank votes, Rice received 56% of the vote. You can also view these ratingsas a table. [14] One district Indiana's 2nd was vacant because the incumbent passed away.[15]. Five were open because they were newly created districts where no incumbent filed to run. The chart below shows historical partisan breakdown information for the chamber. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r